WinPicks Reference Manual

Section 7.10. Key Factors

There are four additional key handicapping factors you can view with PFA, three of which you can view with all versions of WinPicks. To do so, select KEY FACTORS from the VIEW menu. The "key" factors are described below.

Turnovers (PFA only)

This option shows you how the teams rank in the net turnovers department (Figure 7.100). This is a number that is often mentioned on the radio and TV broadcasts of NFL games. To get this number, you first count turnovers forced by counting the total number of times a team's defense has intercepted a pass or recovering a fumble. Then, turnovers allowed are counted by adding together the number of times a team's offense has thrown an interception or lost a fumble. Net Turnovers is obtained by turnovers allowed from turnovers forced. Most successful teams have a positive number for Net Turnovers so it is often a useful piece of handicapping information. The report also shows the average number of Net Turnovers per game, based on the database method currently in use.

Figure 7.100 - The Turnovers Report (PFA Only)

Average Margin of Victory (all versions of WinPicks)

This option ranks all teams according to their average margin of victory (AMOV), based on the database method currently in use. The AMOV is computed by taking into account the final result of each team's games. For example, if a team has a record of 3-0, and has won the games by 4, 7, and 10 points respectively, their AMOV is +7 (21 points divided by 3). Teams that have been outscored by their opposition will have a negative AMOV. For example, a team with an 0-3 record that has lost by 4, 7, and 10 points will have an AMOV of -7. The AMOV is shown for all games, for home games, and for away games, and you can sort the rankings by clicking on the column headings.

Average Point Spread (all versions of WinPicks)

This option ranks all teams according to the average point spread in their games, based on the database method currently in use. The average point spread is computed from the closing lines for each team's games. A negative number in the "Avg Pt Spread" column means that a team is favored in their average game; a positive number means that a team is the underdog in their average game. This is a very useful feature that shows which teams get the most respect from the oddsmakers and the betting public. The average point spread is shown for all games, for home games, and for away games, and you can sort the rankings by clicking on the column headings.

Figure 7.101 - The Average Point Spread Report (CBA)

Average Totals (all versions of WinPicks)

This option ranks all teams according to their average totals (over/under) line in their games, based on the database method currently in use. The average totals line is computed from the closing lines for each team's games. This is a very useful feature that shows which teams the oddsmakers expect to be involved in the highest or lowest scoring games. The average totals line is shown for all games, for home games, and for away games, and you can sort the rankings by clicking on the column headings.

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