WinPicks Reference Manual

Section 9.1. Finding Trends Manually Using Team History

The team history window allows you to set four different parameters (TEAM, AFTER, OPPONENT and WHEN). Each parameter is represented by an "index card". When you select the file tab of one of the "index cards", you can modify the parameter and customize TEAM HISTORY so that it only includes the games that you are interested in.

Whenever you change a parameter, the text at the top of the team history window is modified so that it describes which games are now being included in the team history. For example, PBA users could customize TEAM HISTORY so that the heading looks like this:

Denver Nuggets, After Losing ATS 3 or More Games, vs. Conference Opponents, When Playing on Thursday

As you can see from this heading, the number of trends you can look for is almost limitless. The four parameters you can modify are explained in the sections below.

Team

The TEAM parameter allows you to select the team(s) that you wish to include in the team history. You may select one of the following five options:

  • A Team - This is the most commonly selected option. After selecting this option, you are required to select a team from the menu (teams are listed alphabetically). PFA users may select any NFL team, PBA users may select any NBA team, and CFA and CBA users may select any Division-1 college team.

  • A Conference - After selecting this option, you are required to select a conference or division from the menu (listed alphabetically). PFA users may select any NFL division or conference, PBA users may select any NBA division or conference, and CFA and CBA users may select any Division-1 division or conference.

  • All Teams - When you select this option, you select all of the teams tracked by WinPicks. For example, PFA users select all NFL teams, PBA users select all NBA teams, and CFA and CBA users select all Division-1 college teams.

  • Good Teams - When you select this option, you select teams that have done well in recent games. By default, a good team is defined as one with a winning percentage of better than 66.7 percent in a number of games approximately equal to one season. However, you can define the settings by selecting Set Trend Options.

  • Bad Teams - When you select this option, you select teams that have done poorly in recent games. By default, a bad team is defined as one with a winning percentage of less than 33.3 percent in a number of games approximately equal to one season. However, you can define the settings by selecting Set Trend Options.

After

This parameter is extremely powerful. It allows you to limit the team history to games that took place after a specified condition. There are six different selectable categories. Each category has two possible choices, or you can deselect both choices to ignore the category completely, as shown in Figure 9.10. Every possible combination can use the number of games that you select, up to a maximum of 10 games.

Figure 9.10 - Selecting the After Conditions (PBA)

The six categories are:

  • Winning & Losing - Winning only includes games where the selected team(s) was playing after a win. You can select the number of games (from 1 or more to 10 or more). For example, if you select "3 or more games" the team history only includes games where the selected team(s) was playing after having won three or more consecutive games. Losing works the same way, except that it only includes games where the selected team(s) was playing after a loss.

  • Winning ATS & Losing ATS - Winning ATS only includes games where the selected team(s) was playing after a game where they covered the point spread. You can select the number of games (from 1 or more to 10 or more). For example, if you select "3 or more games" the team history only includes games where the selected team(s) was playing after covering the spread in three or more consecutive games. Losing ATS works the same way, except that it only includes games where the selected team(s) was playing after failing to cover the point spread.

  • Going Over & Going Under - Going Over only includes games where the selected team(s) was playing after a game where the combined point total went "over" the totals line. You can select any number of games (from 1 or more to 10 or more). For example, if you select "3 or more games" the team history only includes games where the selected team(s) was playing after having gone "over" the projected total in three or more consecutive games. Going Under works the same way, except that it only includes games where the selected team(s) was playing after a game where the combined point total was under the totals line.

  • Good Team & Bad Team - By default, Good Team only includes games where the selected team(s) was playing after playing a team with a winning percentage of 66.67 percent or higher in recent games. Bad Team only includes games where the selected team(s) was playing after playing a team with a recent winning percentage of less than 33.33 percent. To change these settings, select Set Trend Options.

  • On the Road & At Home - On the Road only includes games where the selected team(s) was playing after a road game. You can select the number of games (from 1 or more to 10 or more). For example, if you select "3 or more games" the team history only includes games where the selected team(s) was playing after having been on the road for three or more consecutive games. At Home works the same way, but only includes games where the selected team(s) was playing after a home game.

  • As Favorite & As Dog - As Favorite only includes games where the selected team(s) was playing after a game where they were favored. You can select any number of games (from 1 or more to 10 or more). For example, if you select "3 or more games" the team history only includes games where the selected team(s) was playing after having been favored in three or more consecutive games. As Dog works the same way, except that it only includes games where the selected team(s) was playing after a game where they had been the underdog.

You are allowed to customize the team history further by using the "Days Rest" feature. There are three "Days Rest" options that you can choose from:

  • Doesn't Matter - Doesn't Matter is the default setting. It includes all games.

  • Less Than & More Than - These two settings allow you to include games where the selected team was playing after "less than" or "more than" a specific amount of rest. You can set the amount of rest to an interval of from 1 to 20 days. This feature is especially useful when looking for NBA trends.

Opponent

The Opponent setting lets you limit the team history to games where the selected team(s) was playing against a selected opponent or group of opponents. All members of the WinPicks family allow you to select from any one of the following Opponent options:

  • Any Opponent - Includes all games against all opponents.

  • Regular Season Opponents - Includes all games except for postseason games. WinPicks does not track preseason games.

  • Post-Season Opponents - Includes postseason games only.

  • Division Opponents - Includes all games against teams in the same division.

  • Conference Opponents - Includes all games against teams in the same conference.

  • Non-Conference Opponents - Includes all games against teams in other conferences.

  • Home Opponents - Includes all games played at home.

  • Away Opponents - Includes all games played on the road.

  • Good Team Opponents - Includes all games against good teams as defined by Set Trend Options.

  • Bad Team Opponents - Includes all games against bad teams as defined by Set Trend Options.

  • vs. Specific Team - Includes all games against a specific team that you select.

  • vs. Specific Conference - Includes all games against a specific conference or division that you select.

  • Exact Line Value - Includes all games when the line was set to the specified value. For example, selecting 7 will show all games when the line was set to 7 points.

Pro Football Analyst (PFA) also allows you to see how a team has performed in specific types of stadiums. This option is not available in the other versions of WinPicks. There are three stadium types you may select from:

  • Dome
  • Open Natural Surface
  • Open Artificial Surface

When

The When setting allows you to limit the team history to only include games where the selected team(s) was playing at a specific time as shown in Figure 9.11.

Figure 9.11 - Selecting the When Conditions (PFA)

All versions of WinPicks allow you to select a date range and filter options from the When screen. The date range allows you to choose from the following settings:

  • From - Allows you to pick a starting date and end date. The default settings use the first date in the database as the start date, and the current date as the end date.

  • Current Database Only - Only includes games from the current database. For example, if a 3-game rolling average is in use, the team history only includes the 3 most recent games played by the selected team(s).

  • Season - Includes games from the selected season.

The filter settings allow to filter out the games you want from the selected date range:

  • All games - Includes all games from the selected date range.

  • Month - Only includes games from the selected month.

  • Day of Week - Only includes games from the selected day of week. This feature’s most common application is finding trends relating to Monday Night NFL games or Thursday night college football games. However, it is also quite valuable when handicapping NBA games, since many teams follow strong day of week trends.

  • Early Season or Late Season - This option allows you to only include games early in the season or late in the season, using a day number that you specify. For example, if you select "Early Season" and set the day setting to 50, the team history will be limited to games played before the season was 50 days old.

After all team history parameters have been set:

  • Click the OK button to view the team history
  • Click the CANCEL button to quit
  • Click the RESET button to reset all parameters

More Information about Querying the Database with Team History

TEAM HISTORY is extremely powerful and quite easy to use. It allows you to query the database and locate just about any imaginable trend. To give you a better idea of its power, here are a few sample questions you can answer in seconds using TEAM HISTORY (use RESET to reset the parameters before beginning a new query):

Q. How often do NFL home dogs cover on Monday night?

A. You can answer this question with PFA. Use TEAM to select "All Teams". Use WHEN to set Day of Week to Monday. To find the answer, look at the ATS record for home dogs.

Q. How often do away dogs win in dome stadiums?

A. Another question for PFA. Use TEAM to select "All Teams". Use OPPONENT to set Stadiums to "Dome". To find the answer, look at the SUR record for away dogs.

Q. How often do the Chicago Bulls cover after two or more losses?

A. A question for PBA. Use TEAM to select "A Team" and then select the Chicago Bulls. Use AFTER to select "Losing", and then select "2 or More Games". To find the answer, look at the ATS record for all games.

Q. How well do college football teams do ATS after failing to cover in 5 or more consecutive games?

A. A question for CFA. Use TEAM to select "All Teams". Use AFTER to set LOSING ATS to "5 or More Games". To find the answer, look at the ATS record for all games.

Q. How well do college basketball teams do ATS when playing at home after losing 3 or more consecutive games during the first 30 days of the season?

A. A question for CBA. Use TEAM to select "All Teams". Use AFTER to set "Losing" to 3 or more games. Use WHEN to set "Early Season" with a 30 day limit. To find the answer, look at the ATS record for home games.

Q. How well do Big 10 basketball teams do against the spread when playing a home conference game during the month of January after three or more consecutive losses?

A. A question for CBA. Use TEAM to select the Big 10 Conference. Use AFTER to set "Losing" to 3 or more games. Use WHEN to set the month to January. To find the answer, look at the ATS record for home games.

Q. How well does Notre Dame do in football against the spread after winning 5 or more consecutive games during the month of October?

A. A question for CFA. Use TEAM to select Notre Dame. Use AFTER to set "Winning" to 5 or more games. Use WHEN to set the month to October. To find the answer, look at the ATS record for all games.

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